Formula
Each year: balance = (balance − withdrawal) × (1 + return)With inflation: next withdrawal = withdrawal × (1 + inflation)Lasts forever if withdrawal ≤ balance × real return ÷ (1 + real return) How it works
This calculator plays your retirement forward one year at a time: take out the year's withdrawal, let the rest earn your expected return, raise next year's withdrawal for inflation, and repeat until the money runs out. The answer is the number of years your savings support you.
If your withdrawal is small enough that investment growth replaces it each year, the money lasts indefinitely. The "withdrawal that lasts indefinitely" figure shows the largest amount that achieves that at a steady return.
Real markets do not deliver a steady return. A crash early in retirement shortens how long your money lasts even if the long-run average is the same. To see how likely you are to run out across thousands of possible markets, use the safe withdrawal rate calculator.
How long will $1 million last?
At a 6% return and 3% inflation, $1 million lasts about 30 years with an inflation-adjusted withdrawal of around $50,000, and indefinitely at about $28,000. At $80,000 a year it lasts roughly 15 years. Enter your own numbers above — small changes in return or spending move the answer a lot.
Frequently asked questions
Should I turn on inflation adjustment?
Usually yes. Your costs rise over time, so a fixed dollar withdrawal buys less each year. Leaving it off can make savings look like they last much longer than they will in practice.
Are withdrawals before or after tax?
Before tax. If your savings are in a traditional 401(k) or IRA, part of each withdrawal will go to income tax, so withdraw enough to cover both spending and tax.
What return should I use in retirement?
It depends on your mix of stocks and bonds. A 60/40 portfolio has historically returned around 6–8% before inflation, but many planners use 4–6% to stay on the safe side.
Does this include Social Security?
No. If you will receive Social Security or a pension, subtract it from your yearly withdrawal to see how long your savings need to cover the rest.
Sources
- Bengen, W. P. (1994). "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data." Journal of Financial Planning.
- Social Security Administration — Retirement benefits