Formula
FIRE number = annual retirement spending ÷ withdrawal rateReal return = (1 + return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1Each month: portfolio = portfolio × (1 + real return)^(1/12) + savings ÷ 12 How it works
This FIRE calculator answers one question: at what age could you stop depending on a paycheck? It works out the portfolio you need — your FIRE number — then grows what you already have, plus what you save each year, until it gets there.
Everything is in today's dollars. Instead of inflating your spending decade by decade, the calculator subtracts inflation from your return up front. A $60,000 lifestyle stays $60,000 on the chart, which makes the result much easier to reason about.
Once you reach financial independence, the chart keeps running: it withdraws your retirement spending each year and lets the rest stay invested. With a 4% withdrawal rate and a real return just under 4%, the line drifts down slowly over decades. Real markets will make it wobble, which is why the safe withdrawal rate calculator tests thousands of market paths.
How to retire early: the three levers
Your savings rate does most of the work. Going from saving 20% to 50% of take-home pay can cut decades off your working life, because it both increases what you invest and shrinks the FIRE number you need.
Retirement spending sets the finish line. Every $1,000 of yearly spending you can drop adds about $25,000 to the portfolio you need at a 4% withdrawal rate. Paying off a mortgage before you retire is a common way to lower it.
Returns matter, but you do not control them. Plan with a cautious real return (3.5–5%) and treat anything better as a bonus that lets you retire sooner.
What this FIRE calculator does not include
Social Security, pensions and inheritances are left out, which makes the result conservative; reduce your retirement spending by any guaranteed income you are confident about. Taxes on withdrawals are also not modelled — enter spending including the tax you expect to pay, or use the Fat FIRE calculator, which adds an effective tax rate.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good savings rate for FIRE?
Many people pursuing FIRE save 40–70% of their take-home pay. At 50%, with a 5% real return and a 4% withdrawal rate, you could reach financial independence in roughly 17 years starting from zero.
Should I use 4% or a lower withdrawal rate?
The 4% rule was tested over 30-year retirements. If you might be retired for 40–50 years, 3.25–3.75% gives a larger margin of safety. Try both here to see how much later each one makes your date.
Should I count my home equity?
Usually not. Your home does not produce income you can spend unless you sell or rent it. Instead, make sure your retirement spending reflects whether you will still have a mortgage or rent.
Why does the portfolio shrink slowly after financial independence?
You withdraw about 4% a year while the portfolio earns a little under 4% after inflation, so the balance drifts down gradually but lasts for decades. In a real retirement, market swings will make the line bumpier.
Sources
- Bengen, W. P. (1994). "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data." Journal of Financial Planning.
- Cooley, Hubbard & Walz (1998). "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable." AAII Journal (the "Trinity study").
- Mr. Money Mustache — "The Shockingly Simple Math Behind Early Retirement"